It estimated that with current trends the probability of staying below 2 °C of warming is 5-26% if NDCs were met and continued post-2030 by all signatories.
Paris Agreement on capacity building and adaptation, even though they feature prominently in the Paris Agreement. The literature available is mostly mixed in its conclusions about loss and damage, and adaptation. According to the stocktake report, the agreement has a significant effect: while in 2010 the expected temperature rise by 2100 was 3.7-4.8 °C, at COP 27 it was 2.4-2.6 °C and if all countries will fulfill their long-term pledges even 1.7-2.1 °C.

Despite it, the world is still very far from reaching the aim of the agreement: limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. The Paris Agreement also seemed to have influenced the focus of the following IPCC reports. Before the Paris Agreement was settled, the IPCC assessment reports focused roughly in equal proportions on temperatures above and below 2 °C.

However, in the 6th assessment report, after the Paris Engagement was reached, slightly less than 20% of the temperature mentions are above 2 °C and almost 50% focus on 1.5 °C alone.